Research

Below is a list of my research output (working papers, work-in-progress, and publications) listed from more recent to least as well as presentations to academic fora.

Working papers

How is climate fuelling the thirst for sweetness? Exploring drivers and adaptation (working paper)

Co-authored with Laure de Preux (Imperial College London).
Link to paper (version May 2024): https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4862789  

Amid the current syndemic of obesity and climate change, little is known about the effect of extreme temperatures on dietary behaviour. Using exogenous daily variations in weather and a nationally representative consumer panel in the U.S., we find that extreme heat increases the volume purchased of sugary drinks, with persistent impacts after accounting for inter-temporal purchase shifts. We explore heterogeneous effects and a range of potential drivers, including changes in shopping habits, inter-channel substitutions, retailers' price adjustments, and psychological biases. Results reveal higher impacts among the most vulnerable households and no evidence of long-run adaptation by historical heat exposure. We combine our estimates with output from climate models for 2080-2099. Our projections indicate that climate change may increase sugary drink purchases.

Seminar presentations: Imperial College London (Economics & Public Policy)
Conference presentations: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA 2024); Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (AERE 2024); European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE 2024); European Health Economics Association (EuHEA 2024); Sustainable Food Systems Symposium (University of Gottingen, 2024); French Economics Association (AFSE 2024); Canadian Economics Association (CEA 2024); Maastricht Workshop on Applied Economics of the Environment (MAEE 2024)

Can differentiated value-added tax rates promote healthier diets? The case of Costa Rica (revise & resubmit)

Revise & resubmit at Food Policy. Latest version July 2024.

Solo-authored.

In February 2023, Costa Rica reformed its basic value-added tax basket attracting a reduced rate with the aim to promote more balanced diets. This paper assesses ex-ante the impact of the reform on nutrient availability and household spending across income groups. Price elasticities are estimated using pooled National Household Income and Expenditure Survey data and a two-step censored quadratic almost ideal demand system model accounting for price and total expenditure endogeneity. Nutritional information is derived from food composition tables. Food items are grouped by processing level as a proxy to explore differences in own- and cross-price effects between healthier and less healthy items.  

Seminar presentations: University of Birmingham (Centre for the Economics of Obesity); University of Costa Rica (School of Nutrition); Imperial College London (Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation; Public Health Policy Evaluation Unit)
Conference presentations: Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences conference (University of Warwick, 2023)

Taxation of foods high in saturated fats, sodium, and sugars in India: A modelling study of health and economic impacts (submitted)

Submitted December 2024.

Co-authored with Jingmin Zhu* (Imperial College London), Jack Olney (Imperial College London), William Joe (IEG, New Delhi), Manika Sharma (RTSL, New Delhi), Lindsay Steele (RTSL, New York), and Franco Sassi (Imperial College London).
* We both share first authorship.

The consumption of foods high in fat, sugar, and salt (HFSS) as well as overweight and obesity rates are rapidly increasing in India. The taxation of these foods has been proposed to promote healthier diets and prevent diet-related non-communicable diseases. This study aims to estimate the effect of such an approach on nutrient intake, diet-related diseases, and related economic burden. Consumer responsiveness to food price changes is estimated using nationally representative household expenditure survey data and an almost ideal demand system model. Baseline nutrient intake is derived from merging the survey data with Indian Food Composition Tables. We assess various Goods and Services Tax (GST) scenarios using nutrient profile modelling to differentiate tax rates. We estimate changes in government tax revenue and the distributional impact on household expenditure. We evaluate the effect on diet-related diseases over the next 30 years using the Health-GPS microsimulation model calibrated with disease incidence and national health survey microdata. Associated changes in total health expenditure (by the government and consumers) are analysed. Findings show that the taxation of HFSS foods could mitigate rising diet-related diseases and morbidity in India, save government and consumer healthcare cost and represent an important revenue source for the government, all while having a limited impact on food costs to consumers. 

Seminar presentations: Institute for Economic Growth (New Delhi, 2023)
Conference presentations: Delivering for Nutrition in South Asia (IFPRI, Kathmandu, Nepal, 2023)

Work-in-progress

Extreme weather and nutrition security in the developing world

Work-in-progress. Solo-authored.

A global meta-analysis of food demand elasticities

Work-in-progress.

Co-authored with Olivier Ecker (IFPRI), Andrew Comstock (IFPRI), and Shaonan Wang (University of Georgia).

Presentations

2024. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) (Conference Presentation); Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (AERE) (Conference Presentation); European Health Economics Association (EuHEA) (Conference Presentation); University of Gottingen's Sustainable Food Systems Symposium (Conference Presentation); Canadian Economics Association (CEA) (Conference Presentation); French Economists Association (AFSE) (Conference Presentation); Maastricht University's Workshop on Applied Economics of the Environment (Conference Presentation); Imperial College London's Economics & Public Policy (Seminar Presentation).

2023. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) `Delivering for Nutrition in South Asia 2023' (Conference Presentation); University of Warwick `Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences' (Conference Presentation); University of Birmingham's Health Economics Unit (Seminar Presentation); University of Costa Rica's School of Nutrition (Seminar Presentation); Imperial College London's Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation (Seminar Presentation); Imperial College London's Public Health Policy Evaluation Unit (Seminar Presentation); University of Copenhagen's Department of Food and Resource Economics (IFRO) `Food and health policy analysis using home-scan data' (PhD course).